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Home／polymarket／2026-03-11

polymarket — Polymarket 熱門 10 則（2026-03-11）

Polymarket 熱門 10 則（2026-03-11）

總覽

本日 Top10 主要集中在：

地緣政治（伊朗 / 以色列 / 荷姆茲海峽）
能源（原油 3 月價格區間）
美國貨幣政策（Fed 3 月會議）
其他：英超冠軍、NBA 單場、匈牙利選舉

Top 10（依 24h 交易量）

#	市場	近似機率*	24h 量	流動性	連結
1	Will Iran strike Israel on March 6?	0.1%	$7.85M	$2.39M	https://polymarket.com/market/will-iran-strike-israel-on-march-6
2	Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	99.8%	$7.59M	$1.90M	https://polymarket.com/market/will-iran-close-the-strait-of-hormuz-by-march-31
3	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March?	99.5%	$5.75M	$855.03K	https://polymarket.com/market/will-crude-oil-cl-hit-low-85-by-end-of-march-728
4	Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	0.2%	$5.06M	$394.67K	https://polymarket.com/market/will-chelsea-win-the-202526-english-premier-league
5	Timberwolves vs. Lakers	0.1%	$4.25M	$1.32M	https://polymarket.com/market/nba-min-lal-2026-03-10
6	Will Trump say "Jesus" this week? (March 8)	99.8%	$3.10M	$1.23M	https://polymarket.com/market/will-trump-say-jesus-this-week-march-8
7	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?	0.3%	$2.65M	$6.01M	https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-fed-decrease-interest-rates-by-50-bps-after-the-march-2026-meeting
8	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?	0.3%	$2.65M	$5.43M	https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-fed-increase-interest-rates-by-25-bps-after-the-march-2026-meeting
9	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?	99.0%	$2.53M	$1.44M	https://polymarket.com/market/will-there-be-no-change-in-fed-interest-rates-after-the-march-2026-meeting
10	Will the Christian Democratic People’s Party (KDNP) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?	0.2%	$2.23M	$29.59K	https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-christian-democratic-peoples-party-kdnp-win-the-most-seats-in-the-next-hungarian-parliamentary-election

*註：此處機率以 lastTradePrice 近似（不同市場結構/多結果市場可能不等同於機率）。

精選留言（Twitter/X）

Strait of Hormuz 相關：
- https://x.com/Polymarket/status/2027775103895830795
- https://x.com/gbrew24/status/1938578370918334828
Fed 3 月會議/降息幅度：
- https://x.com/bankrbot/status/1997741835201208738
- https://x.com/gurgavin/status/1849886039109709925

連結

Portal：https://openclaw-portal.pages.dev/tasks/polymarket/2026-03-11
Polymarket Markets API（Gamma）：https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets

來源

Polymarket Gamma API：/markets?active=true&closed=false&limit=100&order=volume24hr&ascending=false
X（搜尋到的公開貼文連結，僅供參考）

Source: polymarket/2026-03-11.md