Polymarket 熱門 10 則（2026-03-22）

資料時間：2026-03-22 16:00（Asia/Taipei）

總覽

• 取樣：Polymarket Gamma API（依 volume24hr 排序，closed=false，limit=10）
• 指標：24h 交易量（volume24hr）、總交易量（volume）、流動性（liquidity）
• 備註：『精選留言』目前 API 僅提供 commentCount，未提供可公開抓取的留言內容；本報告先列出討論量與連結，避免硬掰。

Top 10

個別摘要（Top 10）

1. BitBoy convicted?

• 目前價格（Yes/No）：0.315 / 0.685（隱含機率約 31.5%）
• 24h 交易量：6270.926092
• 總交易量：168527.0526519985；流動性：2139.96871
• 截止：2026-03-31T12:00:00Z
• 討論數（commentCount）：29
• 連結：https://polymarket.com/event/bitboy-convicted
• 規則摘要：BitBoy was recently arrested due to a warrant issued for threatening communications he sent to a Judge. You can read more about that here: https://www.binance.com/en/square/post/22059661159362 This market will resolve to…

2. Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?

• 目前價格（Yes/No）：0.535 / 0.465（隱含機率約 53.5%）
• 24h 交易量：630.9865229999999
• 總交易量：1393721.821428998；流動性：50773.8582
• 截止：2026-07-31T12:00:00Z
• 討論數（commentCount）：781
• 連結：https://polymarket.com/event/russia-ukraine-ceasefire-before-gta-vi-554
• 規則摘要：This market will resolve to "Yes" if if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine before Grand Theft Auto VI is…

3. New Rihanna Album before GTA VI?

• 目前價格（Yes/No）：0.535 / 0.465（隱含機率約 53.5%）
• 24h 交易量：717.0781760000001
• 總交易量：670103.7379190024；流動性：36704.2578
• 截止：2026-07-31T12:00:00Z
• 討論數（commentCount）：781
• 連結：https://polymarket.com/event/new-rhianna-album-before-gta-vi-926
• 規則摘要：This market will resolve to "Yes" if Rihanna officially releases a new album before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 1…

4. New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI?

• 目前價格（Yes/No）：0.695 / 0.305（隱含機率約 69.49%）
• 24h 交易量：1323.1776189999998
• 總交易量：705830.0780379988；流動性：32524.8838
• 截止：2026-07-31T12:00:00Z
• 討論數（commentCount）：781
• 連結：https://polymarket.com/event/new-playboi-carti-album-before-gta-vi-421
• 規則摘要：This market will resolve to "Yes" if Playboi Carti officially releases a new album before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If neither occurs by July 31, 2…

5. Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?

• 目前價格（Yes/No）：0.485 / 0.515（隱含機率約 48.5%）
• 24h 交易量：5134.037576
• 總交易量：10093217.926832119；流動性：670374.4097
• 截止：2026-07-31T12:00:00Z
• 討論數（commentCount）：781
• 連結：https://polymarket.com/event/will-jesus-christ-return-before-gta-vi-665
• 規則摘要：This market will resolve to "Yes" if The Second Coming of Jesus Christ occurs before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, …

6. Trump out as President before GTA VI?

• 目前價格（Yes/No）：0.525 / 0.475（隱含機率約 52.5%）
• 24h 交易量：1731.1099969999998
• 總交易量：548172.4698480087；流動性：60689.2999
• 截止：2026-07-31T12:00:00Z
• 討論數（commentCount）：781
• 連結：https://polymarket.com/event/trump-out-as-president-before-gta-vi-846
• 規則摘要：This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump ceases to be the President of the U.S. for any period of time before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If…

7. Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?

• 目前價格（Yes/No）：0.515 / 0.485（隱含機率約 51.5%）
• 24h 交易量：963.319062
• 總交易量：1501243.2749940176；流動性：71877.268
• 截止：2026-07-31T12:00:00Z
• 討論數（commentCount）：781
• 連結：https://polymarket.com/event/will-china-invades-taiwan-before-gta-vi-716
• 規則摘要：This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Othe…

8. Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?

• 目前價格（Yes/No）：0.4865 / 0.5135（隱含機率約 48.65%）
• 24h 交易量：14788.177043000002
• 總交易量：3709694.538875678；流動性：401149.71683
• 截止：2026-07-31T12:00:00Z
• 討論數（commentCount）：781
• 連結：https://polymarket.com/event/will-bitcoin-hit-1m-before-gta-vi-872
• 規則摘要：This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTCUSDT) has a final "High" price of $1,000,000 or higher before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market …

9. GTA VI released before June 2026?

• 目前價格（Yes/No）：0.0275 / 0.9725（隱含機率約 2.75%）
• 24h 交易量：25718.335368999997
• 總交易量：12780115.613751983；流動性：54172.37057
• 截止：2026-05-31T12:00:00Z
• 討論數（commentCount）：27
• 連結：https://polymarket.com/event/gta-vi-released-before-june-2026
• 規則摘要：This market will resolve to "Yes" if it Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to…

10. Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time?

• 目前價格（Yes/No）：0.3305 / 0.6695（隱含機率約 33.05%）
• 24h 交易量：1133.6137939999999
• 總交易量：166076.26767599993；流動性：802.35831
• 截止：2025-12-31T12:00:00Z
• 討論數（commentCount）：10
• 連結：https://polymarket.com/event/will-harvey-weinstein-be-sentenced-to-no-prison-time
• 規則摘要：This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. …

精選留言（可驗證來源）

目前僅能取得每個事件的 commentCount，無法從 Gamma API 直接拉出可引用的留言正文（避免引用不可靠的二手轉載）。 建議做法：如你要真的『精選留言』，我需要改成用瀏覽器/可用的社群抓取工具去抓 Polymarket event 頁面內的討論串（或改抓 X 上 @Polymarket / 相關 hashtag 的熱門貼文）。

來源

• Gamma API: https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?limit=10&closed=false&sort=volume24hr
• 原始 JSON：/tmp/polymarket/2026-03-22.json