Polymarket 熱門 10 則（2026-03-04）
更新時間：2026-03-04 16:04 UTC+08:00（Asia/Taipei）
總覽
- 資料來源：Polymarket Gamma API（markets，依 24h volume 排序）
- Top10 24h 總成交量：26,583,004 USDC
- Top10 累積成交量：264,263,341 USDC
Top 10（依 24h 成交量）
| # | 市場問題 | 目前主流機率 | 24h 成交量 | 累積成交量 | 到期 | 連結 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? | No 99.4% | 8,315,324 | 17,938,622 | 2026-05-30 | https://polymarket.com/market/will-atletico-madrid-win-the-202526-la-liga |
| 2 | Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | Yes 73.5% | 2,717,561 | 8,803,985 | 2026-12-31 | https://polymarket.com/market/will-iran-close-the-strait-of-hormuz-by-march-31 |
| 3 | Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No 99.2% | 2,537,906 | 31,010,604 | 2028-11-07 | https://polymarket.com/market/will-tim-walz-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination-475 |
| 4 | Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | Yes 68.8% | 2,430,913 | 3,555,705 | 2026-12-31 | https://polymarket.com/market/will-mojtaba-khamenei-be-the-next-supreme-leader-of-iran-573 |
| 5 | Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | No 81.9% | 2,328,448 | 18,068,833 | 2026-03-31 | https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-march-31 |
| 6 | Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? | No 100.0% | 2,072,603 | 74,233,518 | 2026-07-01 | https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-indiana-pacers-win-the-2026-nba-finals |
| 7 | Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? | No 99.6% | 1,707,669 | 4,307,531 | 2026-04-01 | https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-reach-150k-in-march-2026 |
| 8 | Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? | No 99.9% | 1,599,549 | 1,921,588 | 2026-03-10 | https://polymarket.com/market/elon-musk-of-tweets-march-3-march-10-0-19 |
| 9 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting? | No 99.6% | 1,511,497 | 81,724,128 | 2026-03-18 | https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-fed-decrease-interest-rates-by-50-bps-after-the-march-2026-meeting |
| 10 | Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? | No 99.2% | 1,361,535 | 22,698,827 | 2026-07-01 | https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-charlotte-hornets-win-the-2026-nba-finals |
精選留言／討論摘錄（媒體/社群）
註：因 X/Twitter 搜尋結果不穩定，先以可取得的媒體/社群摘要連結補齊；若你要強制改成只收錄 X 貼文，我可以改用 browser + 手動 attach tab 的方式抓。
- Strait of Hormuz 市場規則爭議：https://www.sportscasting.com/news/polymarket-iran-strait-of-hormuz-controversy-traders-claim-rules-changed-mid-market
- Macro/FX 技術分析引用 Polymarket 機率（Hormuz）：https://www.actionforex.com/contributors/technical-analysis/631975-chart-alert-risk-off-persists-on-strait-of-hormuz-fears-eur-chf-eyeing-0-9010-key-bearish-breakdown-level/
- 新聞整理（Hormuz odds 上升）：https://www.cryptotimes.io/2026/03/04/iran-will-close-strait-of-hormuz-polymarket-odds-climb-to-66/
- Polymarket 下架核武爆炸類市場（爭議背景）：https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/03/04/polymarket-shelves-nuclear-detonation-markets-after-outcry
連結
- Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga?: https://polymarket.com/market/will-atletico-madrid-win-the-202526-la-liga
- Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?: https://polymarket.com/market/will-iran-close-the-strait-of-hormuz-by-march-31
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?: https://polymarket.com/market/will-tim-walz-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination-475
- Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?: https://polymarket.com/market/will-mojtaba-khamenei-be-the-next-supreme-leader-of-iran-573
- Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?: https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-march-31
- Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals?: https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-indiana-pacers-win-the-2026-nba-finals
- Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March?: https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-reach-150k-in-march-2026
- Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?: https://polymarket.com/market/elon-musk-of-tweets-march-3-march-10-0-19
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?: https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-fed-decrease-interest-rates-by-50-bps-after-the-march-2026-meeting
- Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals?: https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-charlotte-hornets-win-the-2026-nba-finals